TenebraTenebra is forecasting software for businesses. It puts a probability on the events that can move your plans, shows the evidence behind every number and checks itself when the answer comes in.
Open any forecast and read the argument behind it: the evidence for and against with the outlets it came from, what anchors the estimate, how uncertain it still is and what would change it.
A Tenebra number never jumps without a reason. Each change is dated, sized and tied to the report that caused it, so you can see exactly why today's estimate is not last week's.
Supply routes, outages, elections, public health, policy. Every question has a deadline, a probability and its trend, refreshed as the news moves. Search, sort and get an alert when something you follow shifts.
Ask a chatbot how likely something is and you get a confident sentence with nothing behind it. Tenebra is built the other way around.
Separate specialist analysts read the evidence on their own. A statistical engine, not a chat reply, combines their reads into the probability.
Every estimate begins with how often similar events have happened before, and moves only as far as the evidence justifies.
A built-in red team looks for reasons the forecast is wrong, and its case is weighed like any other evidence.
Thin or conflicting evidence widens the range instead of hiding behind a confident number.
It reads outlets in many countries and languages, and checks stories against each other, so a single headline cannot swing the number.
Forecasts are recorded before the outcome is known and graded after, misses included. Over time you see exactly how far to trust them.
A native app, with widgets for the Home Screen and Lock Screen.
Every question and every forecast in the browser.
Live probabilities straight into your own models.
The numbers and their reasons, in your own tools.
We are opening it to a small number of teams. Tell us what you would like to forecast.
